Donald Trump is a 2020 Favorite


Joshua Lieberstein, Reporter

Three years ago, Donald Trump shook many Americans, being elected the 45th U.S. President over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Now he is looking to secure another four years.

The odds posted on betting website Bovada have Trump as a 2/1 favorite over democratic frontrunner Elizabeth Warren. One of the reasons for this is that, “65 percent of presidents who run for re-election win,” said Brian Mudd from The Brian Mudd Show.

Trump has been starting his campaign early. For the 2020 election, he is trying to flip blue states to red. Brian Bennett from TIME magazine said, “the Trump campaign is targeting states that have high rates of support for Trump among Republicans. The bet is that they can ramp up turnout and swamp the votes in traditional Democratic strongholds.”

Trump’s campaign is mainly targeting Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico thus far, however they plan to expand to more blue states. Trump is especially focusing on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because he flipped them during 2016 and hopes to do it again. New Mexico, however, is a long shot, but the campaign says that they are confident that Hispanics will vote for Trump and turn the state red. 

Bennett writes, “They can energize a slice of the state’s Hispanic voters to vote for Trump in 2020 by emphasizing Trump’s handling of the economy, border security and his trade confrontation with China.”

Many people around the Novato area do not support Trump, and do not want him to be re-elected. However, it currently looks dismal for Trump critics and positive for Trump supporters, as CNBC reported, “More than two-thirds of North American chief financial officers surveyed by CNBC say Trump will win the 2020 election.”

That sentiment was echoed by senior Caty Obermeier, who doesn’t align herself with Trump.

“I do agree that he’s going to win in the 2020 Election. I don’t like him, but I don’t think there is a strong democratic candidate for them to win over Donald Trump,” Obermeier said.

Trump’s campaign promises in 2016 were vast, but the top five were as follows: building a wall, cutting taxes, repealing Obamacare, imposing tariffs on goods imported from China and Mexico and bringing jobs back. Trump has accomplished most of these within the first three years of his presidency, but is still hoping to have the next four years to fully implement all of these programs. 

Newsweek reported, “Trump fulfilled this campaign promise one year into office. In December 2017, he signed the most extensive tax code rewrite in decades,” refering to the tax cuts. 

Senior Julian Stewart, an outspoken Trump supporter, has an opinion on the upcoming election.

“This time around he has much pretty much tried to do everything he said he would do with the border wall, etcetera. He hasn’t completed it, but he tried, so they’re gonna be like well [expletive], let’s vote for him,” Stewart said.

Marin is largely a liberal county, with over 50 percent of the registered voters being Democratic, and only 18 percent being registered Republican. This is reflected at Novato High, with most of the students leaning more liberal rather than conservative.

Novato High junior and Trump critic, Amalia McLaughlin, weighed in on the 2020 election.

“I think he has a really strong chance of winning,” McLaughlin said. “One, because a lot of the candidates that are running this year are very very liberal. Like, take Bernie Sanders for an example, has no chance against Trump because he is our president now and a majority of our country are Trump supporters.”

On September 24th, a new development popped up that may affect the upcoming election. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry of Trump. Although the chances of impeachment going through are slim, it could impact his chances of reelection

Ultimately, odds are never fully accurate projections as the political world is ever-changing. OddsShark’s live odds during the 2016 election showed this on election night, with Trump as a 5 to 1 underdog and Hillary Clinton as a 7 to 1 favorite (meaning a bet of 700 dollars would be rewarded with 100 dollars given a Clinton win). Trump was a heavy underdog during the last presidential election, and with him being an early favorite, anything could happen, considering the primaries haven’t even occurred yet.